The West Valley market book for agents. Glendale, Peoria, Surprise, Sun City, Sun City West and the neighbors, with the numbers, the stories behind them, and the words to use at the kitchen table. Updated November 11, 2026 from ARMLS (through AreaPro and RealTalk), Freddie Mac, the Federal Reserve, BLS and the local news linked inside.
October handed buyers the most choice in about fifteen years and the fewest competing buyers since 2009. Prices barely moved. And the calendar just turned to the six weeks when most of our industry stops working.
Across the whole MLS there were 27,757 homes for sale on November 10, 5.1 months of supply, and sellers closing at 97.8% of their final list price. In the West Valley box, 8,587 homes for sale, 4.8 months of supply, 98.5% of list. Three weeks earlier it was 4.4 months. Supply is up, demand is down, and the price homes close at has not budged.
Direction, in plain words: Glendale moved from balanced to a buyer's market in October. Peoria is the softest it has been since 2009. Surprise is the softest since 2008. Sun City West is the only one of our five cities where sellers still have the edge, and even there supply jumped about 28% in one month. Ten of the Valley's 18 biggest cities now favor buyers, the most since late 2022.
Two things to watch. New listings are fading the way they do every November, down about 7% from last year in the first ten days, so the pile of homes for sale should stop growing in the next few weeks and shrink into the new year. And rates just reminded everyone who is in charge. They fell three weeks in a row to 7.18%, then a hot inflation report on Tuesday pushed the daily rate back to 7.30%. Nobody can time that. The price and the seller credit are the parts a buyer can control.
Sources: AreaPro (ARMLS, residential, three month sold window, Nov 10, 2026), RealTalk (ARMLS, single family, October and November 1 to 10, 2026), Aligned Showings (showing appointments, November 11, 2026), Freddie Mac PMMS, Mortgage News Daily. Direction statements are our read of the market, in our words.
Our own MLS counts, kept by hand every week since April 2020.
ARMLS through RealTalk, single family, pulled Nov 11.
Mortgage News Daily, Nov 10 · Wolf Street, Nov 10 · MPA, Nov 10. Freddie Mac posts its new weekly rate Thursday morning.
ARMLS through RealTalk, Nov 11, and our own weekly counts.
Approved showing appointments booked through Aligned Showings, whole ARMLS, list price $100,000 and up, pulled Nov 11. Some vacant homes are shown without an appointment, so trust the direction more than the totals. Say it to a client: "Buyers are not leaving anymore. They are looking and waiting for a reason. A sharp price and a buydown is the reason."
| City | Months | Active | % of list |
|---|---|---|---|
| Laveen | 3.4 | 190 | 99.1% |
| Glendale | 3.7 | 659 | 98.5% |
| Avondale | 4.1 | 260 | 99.1% |
| El Mirage | 4.1 | 73 | 98.8% |
| Sun City area | 4.7 | 711 | 97.3% |
| Peoria | 5.0 | 901 | 98.2% |
| City | Months | Active | % of list |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buckeye | 5.1 | 1,071 | 98.8% |
| Waddell | 5.1 | 222 | 99.7% |
| Surprise | 5.4 | 1,375 | 98.8% |
| Goodyear | 5.4 | 741 | 98.5% |
| Litchfield Park | 5.6 | 257 | 98.3% |
| Whole MLS, all types | 5.1 | 27,757 | 97.8% |
Months of supply is homes for sale divided by homes sold per month over the last three months. Under six is still considered a normal market by most lenders and appraisers. The Sun City area combines Sun City and Sun City West. Price bands are the West Valley box. Since November 5: Glendale tightened from 3.8 to 3.7, Surprise and Goodyear loosened from 5.3 to 5.4, and pending sales in the West Valley box rose from 1,872 to 1,959. As of November 10, 2026, AreaPro.
Valley median down about 1% on the year. West Valley sellers close at 98.5% of final list. Only 1.9% of US mortgages are underwater (Zelman). In 2009 it was one in four. The homes not selling were priced for last spring.
6.66% in late July. 7.40% by mid October. 7.18% on November 5 after three weekly drops. Back to 7.30% on the daily index November 10 after a hot inflation report. Traders price a December 9 Fed hike at 100%. Mortgage rates follow the 10 year Treasury, not the Fed, and the 10 year is back near 5%.
October closings with a seller credit: Glendale 66%, Surprise 68%, Peoria 54%, Avondale 89%, Buckeye 73%. When given, $12,600 to $14,600 in the big three. Lead with the buydown before they ask for the price cut.
Maricopa County: 518 notices in October, most in a month since 2019. 4,891 this year, up 14%. In 2009 it was 88,304. Bank owned homes are about 6 per 1,000 MLS sales. In 2015 it was 34.
Say it to a client: "Glendale is still the fastest and best value in the West Valley. Priced right it sells in six weeks at almost 99% of list. Priced for April it sits, and half of October's sellers had to cut first."
Say it to a client: "Peoria has 901 homes for sale and the most choice above $500,000 in years. Buyers, that is your shelf. Sellers, Amkor's 3,000 jobs land in 2027 and 2028, not this winter. Price for the buyer in front of you."
Say it to a client: "1,375 homes for sale, the most in the West Valley. Under $500,000 Surprise still moves in about four and a half months. Over $500,000 it is eight. If you are selling above $500,000 in Surprise, the buydown is not optional."
Say it to a client: "Sun City West is the last West Valley city where sellers have the edge. Homes sold in 32 days in October and only one in four sellers paid a credit. Supply jumped 28% in a month. The edge is real, and it is getting smaller every week."
Say it to a client: "Sun City went from even to a buyer's market in about six weeks. The October median was $289,500 and sellers took 96.5% of list. For a buyer under $300,000 it is the best entry point in the West Valley right now."
October closings, days on market, sale to list and credits: ARMLS single family through RealTalk, October 1 to 31, 2026, versus October 2025. Months of supply: AreaPro residential, three month window, November 10. One month supply change for Sun City and Sun City West: our read of the secondary city tables, in our words.
| City | Sold | Median | Days | Sale to list | With a credit | Credit when given | Sold after a cut |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glendale | 161 | $420,000 | 45 | 98.8% | 66% | $12,600 | 53% |
| Peoria | 160 | $515,000 | 54 | 98.3% | 54% | $14,562 | 51% |
| Surprise | 243 | $429,990 | 58 | 97.8% | 68% | $14,234 | 57% |
| Avondale | 57 | $410,000 | 54 | 99.4% | 89% | $11,943 | 63% |
| Buckeye | 187 | $399,000 | 68 | 99.8% | 73% | $12,864 | 69% |
| El Mirage | 21 | $337,604 | 49 | 96.5% | 90% | $12,089 | 67% |
| Goodyear | 117 | $475,000 | 49 | 97.0% | 60% | $12,644 | 66% |
| Laveen | 49 | $475,000 | 44 | 99.6% | 69% | $13,780 | 59% |
| Litchfield Park | 37 | $540,000 | 73 | 100.0% | 62% | $14,400 | 59% |
| Sun City | 54 | $289,500 | 58 | 96.5% | 48% | $9,380 | 43% |
| Sun City West | 72 | $399,450 | 32 | 98.8% | 25% | $7,175 | 32% |
| Waddell | 36 | $485,998 | 79 | 100.2% | 72% | $15,720 | 67% |
| Days to contract | Sales | Kept of original list |
|---|---|---|
| 0 to 15 | 591 | 99.5% |
| 16 to 30 | 535 | 98.0% |
| 31 to 60 | 1,052 | 97.6% |
| 61 to 120 | 1,222 | 96.7% |
| Over 120 | 851 | 93.8% |
On a $450,000 home the gap between the first row and the last is about $26,000. Only 14% of sellers landed in the first row. Half took more than 60 days. That is The 15 Day Window, and it is the whole listing presentation.
Based on information from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service for the period August 1 to November 10, 2026. Listing Information © 2026 Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc. All information should be verified by the recipient and none is guaranteed as accurate by ARMLS. Pulled through RealTalk, November 5, 2026.
Nobody tours homes the week before Thanksgiving for fun. Fewer buyers, all of them serious. The West Valley still closed about 1,825 homes a month over the last three months.
New listings fade every November and December. Supply should stop growing in the next four to five weeks and fall toward year end. A listing that goes live now is one of fewer, not one of more.
Fannie Mae calls for 7.5% through 2027. The MBA says above 7% all next year. Waiting for a spring rate rescue is a bet the forecasters are not making.
Single family permits are down 29% in Peoria, 19% in Surprise and 18% in Goodyear this year. Builders went to Buckeye. The University of Arizona expects Valley permits to keep falling through 2027.
Homes that went under contract in the first 15 days kept 99.5% of their original price. West Valley sellers who closed got 98.5% of final list. The discount is in the sitting, not the selling.
27,757 homes for sale across the MLS. 1,375 in Surprise alone. 5.4 months of supply in Surprise, 5.0 in Peoria, 3.7 in Glendale. Six in ten West Valley listings have already cut their price. They can be picky.
Phoenix ranks third in the country for seller concessions (Redfin, 67% of sales). In the West Valley in October, two out of three sellers in Glendale and Surprise gave a credit, $12,600 to $14,600 when they did. Ask for closing costs. Ask for a 2 to 1 buydown. Ask.
Lennar is spending about 12% of price on incentives. D.R. Horton's buydown runs about 1.5 points below market and 9 in 10 of their mortgage buyers take it. Finished homes are sitting. Bring your buyer, the builder pays you too.
Big landlords and iBuyers listed thousands of homes this year and cut prices more often than regular sellers. Opendoor is holding 7,596 homes it needs to move. Your buyer is not bidding against a fund anymore. Search for the corporate owned listings on purpose.
Rates fell from 7.40% to 7.18% in three weeks, then jumped back to 7.30% in one morning on an inflation report. Every 1% in rate is about 10% on the payment. Get the price right now. If rates fall later, refinance. If they do not, they still bought in the most buyer friendly West Valley market since 2008. The Price Lock Strategy: lock the price in a buyer's market, fix the rate later.
Our call is yellow because supply is rising and demand is falling in all five cities, but prices are flat on the year and sellers still get over 97% of list. Red would need prices down more than 3% on the year with buyer demand falling further. We are not there. One more soft month and it is in play.
County counts from the Maricopa County recorder as reported in our November 5 market read. Phoenix ranked 4th among US metros for completed foreclosures in August (ATTOM).
Jul 30 6.66%. Sep 3 6.71%. Sep 24 7.03%. Oct 8 and 15 7.40% (the 2026 high). Oct 29 7.24%. Nov 5 7.18%. A year ago 6.22%. The 2026 low was 5.98% on February 26 (Freddie Mac weekly). Then Tuesday November 10: the daily index jumped from about 7.18% to 7.30% after a hot inflation report, the biggest one day move in over a month (Mortgage News Daily). Freddie Mac posts its new weekly number Thursday morning.
Raised a quarter point in September. Held at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, 10 to 2, with the two dissenters wanting another hike. Next meeting December 9. After Tuesday's inflation report traders price a hike at 100%: 89% for a quarter point, 11% for a half. Fed Governor Waller said a half point should be on the table. Fed statement, CME FedWatch via MPA, Nov 10
| Who | Q4 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| Fannie Mae, Oct 12 | 7.4% | 7.5% |
| MBA, Oct 13 | 7.3% | above 7% |
| Fitch, Nov 6 | above 7% | no call |
Fannie Mae moved its 2027 call from 6.7% to 7.5% in one month. The MBA's Mike Fratantoni: "We're going to come down from this spike in rates. I don't think we're going to come down that far." We report the box. We never predict.
| Rate | P&I | vs peak |
|---|---|---|
| 7.57% (Oct 4) | $2,501 | peak |
| 7.30% (Nov 10 daily) | $2,435 | $66 less |
| 7.18% (Nov 5 weekly) | $2,406 | $94 less |
| 6.50% | $2,245 | $256 less |
| 6.22% (year ago) | $2,180 | $321 less |
Principal and interest only. Every 1% in rate is about 10% on the payment. The next things that move rates: Freddie Mac's weekly number Thursday morning, jobs on December 4, the Fed on December 9, and the next inflation report on December 10.
Economy backdrop: the US added 165,000 jobs in October, far above the 60,000 expected, unemployment 4.1% (BLS, Nov 6). September CPI 3.7%, core 2.6%. October prices rose another 0.4% in the month, core 0.3% for the third month running, with no yearly figure published because October 2025 prices were never collected during the shutdown (BLS, Nov 10). Strong jobs plus sticky inflation is why the market expects a hike, not a cut.
The $7 billion chip packaging plant along Loop 303 grew its site to 171 acres. Phase 2 construction starts in 2027, production 2028. Nvidia placed a large order.
$100 billion added in July. About 12,000 construction workers needed. Home values near the fabs up 53% in six years vs 42% citywide, and they held better in 2022 to 2023. Northwest Phoenix industrial vacancy fell from 16% to 8% in a year.
160 acres at Litchfield Road and Olive Avenue, about 200 permanent jobs, $150 million plus to the city over ten years, first building 2028. Neighbors raised water and air concerns.
Buckeye 5,968, Goodyear 5,875, Glendale 4,721. About 24,000 new neighbors in four cities in twelve months. Microsoft also bought 100 more acres in Goodyear and plans five buildings in El Mirage.
Four miles, Van Buren to MC 85, about four years, began June 15. I-10 full closures near Verrado Way Nov 6 to 9 and Nov 13 to 16.
Permits this year: Peoria down 29%, Surprise down 19%, Goodyear down 18%, Buckeye up 7%. Teravalis has seven builders selling from the low $300,000s. Nationally, builders are spending about 12% of price on incentives (Lennar) and buying rates down 1.5 points (D.R. Horton), with 111,000 finished new homes unsold.
Phoenix added 23,600 jobs over the year to September, sixth most of any big metro. Arizona unemployment 4.9% vs 4.2% for the US. The UA forecast: Phoenix jobs up 1.0% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027, population up about 1.5% a year.
Do not sell on VAI Resort or Mattel Adventure Park. Neither has an opening date (ABC15, Apr 14, 2026).
| They say | You say | The number |
|---|---|---|
| Is it crashing? | "Slowing, not crashing. Prices are down about 1%. Who negotiates changed." | West Valley sellers close at 98.4% of list. 1.9% of US loans underwater. |
| I'll wait for rates to drop. | "The forecasters say above 7% through 2027. When rates drop, buyers come back and your discount leaves." | Fannie Mae 7.5% for 2027. MBA above 7%. |
| I'll price high and come down. | "The first 15 days set your price. Everything after is a discount." | 0 to 15 days kept 99.5%. Over 120 days kept 93.8%. |
| Why would I pay their closing costs? | "Two of three sellers did last month. A $12,000 buydown beats a $20,000 price cut and closes faster." | Glendale 66% with a credit, $12,600 when given. |
| Aren't foreclosures coming? | "Up from almost zero. 518 notices last month. In 2008 it was 7,000 in a month." | 6 bank owned per 1,000 sales vs 34 in 2015. |
| I'll wait until spring. | "Spring brings more sellers and the same rates. Right now you have fewer rivals and serious buyers." | Supply expected to peak in 4 to 5 weeks, then fall. |
| Is now a bad time to buy? | "Best buyer leverage since 2011. Q4 is already the cheapest season." | 27,757 homes for sale. 5.4 months in Surprise. |
| Investors will buy it all. | "Wall Street is selling. Your competition is a family or a small landlord." | Institutional listings doubled. Opendoor holds 7,596 homes. |
Every November, most agents stop prospecting, stop posting and stop calling until the second week of January. Buyer demand is at a 2009 low and most of the people still shopping are serious. That is the whole opportunity. Show up for six weeks and you inherit clients nobody else is talking to.
| Week | Angle | Hook, text on screen |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Counter intuitive | "Everybody says wait for spring. Spring is when your competition comes back." |
| 2 | Insider | "Two out of three Glendale sellers paid the buyer at closing last month. Nobody told the sellers who did not." |
| 3 | FOMO | "The most homes to choose from since 2011. This is the window." |
| 4 | Insider | "3,000 jobs at $90,000 are coming to Loop 303 and nobody on your street knows." |
| 5 | Counter intuitive | "Foreclosures doubled. From almost zero. Here is the number they leave out." |
The methodology names: The Five Sentences for every market conversation. The 15 Day Window for sellers. The Price Lock Strategy for buyers. Say them every time.
Data: ARMLS through AreaPro (residential, three month sold window, November 10, 2026) and RealTalk (single family closed sales October 1 to 31, 2026, and August 1 to October 31, 2026, twelve West Valley cities). Based on information from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service for the period August 1 to November 10, 2026. Listing Information © 2026 Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc. All information should be verified by the recipient and none is guaranteed as accurate by ARMLS. Maricopa County recorder for foreclosure counts. Freddie Mac PMMS, Federal Reserve, BLS, Fannie Mae, MBA, Redfin, Realtor.com, Parcl Labs, ATTOM, ICE, Zelman, Zillow, Apartment List, KJZZ, ABC15, Arizona's Family, Bloomberg, and the other sources linked on each page. Market direction statements are our own read of the market in our own words. Market information, not a promise about any one home. Format by the DaughterDad Team. Agents may brand and share this edition with their own clients.